This week for the 122nd U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass., I’m eyeing a certain type of player who can excel on a classic American golf course with small greens and high rough. Pebble Beach is the only other major venue with smaller greens. The course demands pinpoint accuracy, not distance. Yes, distance will help a player, it always does, but the rough will be more penalizing than a typical PGA Tour event. Also, from what I’ve come to understand about The Country Club, a bomb-and-gauge winner like Bryson DeChambeau at Winged Foot is unlikely to happen because of terrain that features rock formations, water hazards, and massive mounds and more trouble.
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Today we’ll discuss how to play your classic U.S. Open pool based on the Official World Golf Rankings. Even if your pool doesn’t exactly mirror what is outlined below, I’ve identified players using a tier-by-tier approach who could make the cut and contend on Sunday.
The main statistic I’ll be focusing on is shots-gained approach. The sample size is the last 24 rounds vs. the field. This is the foundation I will build my squad, plus other factors like current form, big-miss avoidance and short-game. If a player misses one of these small greens, the skillset to get up and down becomes critical. Par will be a good score this week, don’t forget that as you build your lineups. Here’s how I’ll play the classic golf pool format.
Here’s a hole-by-hole look at the course that highlights those features. You better keep the ball in play on the short grass.
Tier 1 – (Players ranked Nos. 1-10 in the OWGR)
Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth
After a missed cut at the Masters, Burns bounced back with a top 20 at the PGA Championship. The young star and two-time winner in 2022 could be on the precipice of winning his first major championship. Burns has everything going for him that I mentioned above. His form is white hot; he ranks first in strokes gained approach and has the distance to put himself in birdie position all week as long as he remains accurate off the tee. From a strategy point of view, Burns will have a low ownership percentage in this first tier. If you’re looking to get an edge near the top of the OWGR, he could be it.
Pick: Sam Burns
Tier 2
Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Billy Horschel, Abraham Ancer, Brooks Koepka, Joaquin Niemann, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick
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Olympic Gold Medalist Schauffele seems to love a USGA setup. Why? It typically demands accuracy and distance, a hallmark of the 28-year-old’s game. His record of five top 10 finishes in five US Open starts is remarkable. This five-year streak which began in 2017, includes a T3 finish at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Schauffele ranks eighth in shots-gained approach vs. the field and has regained his form since a disappointing missed cut at the Masters. In his last three starts, Xander has finished fifth, 13th and 18th.
Pick: Xander Schauffele
Tier 3
Sunjae Im, Louis Oosthuizen, Max Homa, Shane Lowry, Daniel Berger, Tyrrell Hatton, Paul Casey, Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau, Corey Conners
The Irishman Lowry is having a memorable 2022, but the only thing missing is a victory. No one would be shocked if, come Sunday, Lowry is in contention on Sunday to win his second major championship. This will be his 10th start in the event on what this year seems to be a golf course that suits his game beautifully. Lowry ranks seventh in the important strokes-gained approach statistic and, in the last 24 rounds, has no glaring weakness throughout his entire bag. You can count on the 2019 Open champion to showcase his elite ball striking, and if putts drop, be in the mix throughout the weekend.
Pick: Shane Lowry
Tier 4
Cameron Young, Kevin Kisner, Kevin Na, Jason Kokrak, Harold Varner III, Talor Gooch, Thomas Pieters, Patrick Reed, Tom Hoge, Tommy Fleetwood
Very quietly, Fleetwood has been playing elite golf in 2022, thanks to solid play throughout his entire bag. In all of the strokes-gained categories measured in the last 24 rounds vs. the field, Fleetwood ranks between 11th (short-game) and 45th (off-the-tee). This comes to an average of 17th in strokes-gained total vs. the field. In other words, Fleetwood has the tools to make pars all week long. If Fleetwood can keep the ball in play and give himself birdie looks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him break par on a tough setup. His putting could be the difference at the end of the week. Fleetwood ranks 15th vs. the field in strokes gained putting.
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Pick: Tommy Fleetwood
Tier 5
Seamus Power, KH Lee, Adam Scott, Aaron Wise, Mito Pereira, Lucas Herbert, Keegan Bradley, Justin Rose, Russell Henley, Brian Harman
Three players in this category rank in the top 12 strokes-gained approach in the last 24 rounds vs. the field.
10th – Wise
11th – Henley
12th – Pereira
In this threesome, the biggest glaring weakness is Henley’s rank of 105th off the tee. That eliminates him from a selection. Both Wise and Pereira are in form, have momentum and have used that to vault into the top 50 of the OWGR. At the end of 2021, Wise ranked 66th in the world, and Pereira ranked 98th. I’m going to let experience make the call. This will be Wise’s fourth start in the U.S. Open and Mito’s second. Interestingly enough, Wise only made the cut on the small greens at Pebble Beach. Considering that’s the comparable course we’re studying this week, that’s enough for me to slot Wise into my lineup.
Pick: Aaron Wise
Tier 6 (rest of the field)
2012 U.S. Open champion Webb Simpson is back healthy and playing good golf. If you shrink the shots-gained sample size from the last 24 rounds to the previous eight rounds, Simpson jumps from 59th to 25th in shots-gained total. Four of those rounds came at the tough PGA Championship at Southern Hills. He’s catching form at the right time, and this setup suits Simpson’s game. The 36-year-old doesn’t have to dominate this course with distance off-the-tee. He should be able to surgically plot his way around the course and use his strong putting to make some birdies.
Pick: Webb Simpson
(Photo of Xander Schauffele: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswrire via AP Images)
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